President Donald Trump is facing early turbulence just five months into his second term. New polls show his approval rating has dropped to 45%, down from 49% in January. While the dip may seem modest, it reflects growing dissatisfaction among voters amid economic concerns, inflation, and global tensions. Notably, independent voters are leaning more Democratic heading into the 2026 midterms—posing a real threat to Trump’s broader coalition.

Even GOP strongholds are showing cracks. In Texas, where Trump previously enjoyed solid support, only 44% of voters now approve of his performance. Disapproval is climbing among Republicans and independents alike, driven by frustration over economic management and inflation. These numbers, paired with national polling, point to a political landscape that’s becoming more volatile—even in areas long considered safe for the GOP.

International events further complicate Trump’s position. Recent airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites triggered retaliatory attacks, only to be followed by Trump brokering a temporary ceasefire between Iran and Israel. His boastful retelling of the episode, including a joking reference to missile strike scheduling, drew both praise for strength and criticism for insensitivity. Supporters applauded his assertiveness, while critics saw it as dangerously cavalier.

Despite the turbulence, Trump’s base remains fiercely loyal. Over 80% of Republican voters still back him, ensuring he remains a dominant figure within the party. But his challenge now is reclaiming the trust of moderates and swing voters who are increasingly weary of unrest, inflation, and foreign entanglements. With the 2026 midterms looming, the next several months could determine not only Trump’s legacy—but the trajectory of the Republican Party and the nation itself.